Opportunities
and the way forward
Indian
economy faces several challenges due to factors from within and without. Post
liberalization of economy in 1990s, India enjoyed a period of growth, thanks in
parts to explosive growth in IT exports,
increasing adoption of telecommunications and investments in core
sectors (energy, transport, agriculture). However, the growth in economy has
decelerated over the past several quarters. Is it due to demonetisation? Or
GST? Or the China-US trade wars? The opinions and recommendations of the
experts are divided (as always) on the cause of the slowdown and the way
forward. What would then be the value of a layman's perspective? Perhaps
everyone is entitled to be heard (for India is a noisy democracy, aren't we?); or
perhaps a beginner/outsider can see things which the experts sometime miss. Of
course, I don't claim to offer any "unique" perspective that someone
has not already said somewhere.
Discussing the way forward appears more sensible to me than arguing over
specific policies or failed implementations. In my opinion, India needs to
focus on three themes:
- Demographics: While several advanced economies are confronted with ageing population (e.g., Japan), India enjoys advantageous demographics - its working age population has grown larger than the dependent population as of 2018. This advantage is likely to last for another ~3 decades as per UN estimates. India can lift several millions out of poverty if this working population is adequately skilled, improves productivity and increases India's population in global economy.
- Technology: India should focus on applying emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Blockchain, Internet of Things and Data Analytics to improve citizen's lives. With its vast pool of engineering and science graduates, India should not just "consume" technology invented in the West, but become a technology leader itself. India should study how China has made very rapid strides in adopting Artificial Intelligence technologies and even leading the West with continuous improvements & innovations.
- Culture: India's rich cultural heritage is a unique strength that has not fully expressed itself in all its glory. Whether in tapping the potential of tourism (domestic/international) or teaching the world how to handle diversity of languages, religions, philosophies, ethnicity and even food, India has a lot to show the world how to reduce conflicts among people and live in harmony with Nature.
Doing
these will not only pay economic benefits but also will be a morally right one
for India and the world.
